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希臘公投專題六(中央社記者田裕斌台北5日電)希臘即將在今天舉行公投,金融業大老多認為希臘問題短線衝擊難免、實質影響不大,投信也指出,公投過後,對歐股而言將是利空出盡。

國泰金控董事長蔡宏圖表示,短期內可能會對台灣有一些影響,但實質影響不大,主要因為希臘經濟體規模並不是很大,對台灣、台股應不至於有長期、實質的影響,僅是因為歐美股市波動,才對台灣近幾天有些影響。

華南金控副董事長林明成則認為,希臘債務危機應可度過,但後續則要有大刀闊斧的改革,尤其是年金制度,台灣若不針對年金制度進行修正,恐怕會步上希臘後塵。

中信金控總經理吳一揆指出,希臘經濟體占歐盟比重不高,即使脫離歐盟,對歐盟及歐洲主要國家的影響不大,對全球金融市場的影響應該只是暫時的,不認為會引發金融風暴。

富邦金控董事長蔡明忠看法則是相對保守,他表示,如果希臘「無秩序」退出歐元區,會造成美元獨強,影響到包含台灣在內倚賴出口的新興經濟體,萬一希臘非得離開歐盟,要觀察的是有秩序的離開?還是無秩序的離開?對世界金融市場的影響都會不同,不過,短期波動衝擊力,一定會很大,因為大家將面對的是一個未知數。

保德信歐洲組合基金經理人李宏正指出,希臘問題固然恐動搖全球資本市場信心,但仍不足以釀成歐股反轉下跌,預料希債問題化解後,對歐股將是利空出盡。

李宏正說,儘管希臘債務協商僵局導致歐股短線震盪,第3季仍建議積極布局歐洲,背後最主要的原因,是歐洲復甦正在加速,歐洲製造技術與品牌實力堅強,弱勢歐元又進一步推升產品需求、民間信心,因此可樂觀看待未來歐元區的經濟發展。

李宏正分析,相較2010年到2012年歐債危機時期,歐洲經濟已開始明顯復甦,再加上希臘經濟規模僅占歐元區1.8%,債務規模僅占3.8%,不論是違約或退出歐元區,對歐股不致於釀成「由牛轉熊」的衝擊。

借鏡美日經驗,李宏正分析,量化寬鬆貨幣政策實施後 6個月,企業獲利及股市表現皆有顯著上漲,歐洲可望複製此一模式:比較2009年以來全球股市表現,歐股漲幅落後於美國、日本、部分新興市場國家,落後補漲行情可期待。1040705

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土地銀行 信用貸款率利最低銀行2014 台新銀行













Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, center, speaks to the media after voting at a polling station in Athens, Sunday, July 5, 2015. Greeks began voting early Sunday in a closely-watched, ... 較多Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, center, speaks to the media after voting at a polling station in Athens, Sunday, July 5, 2015. Greeks began voting early Sunday in a closely-watched, closely-contested referendum, which the government pits as a choice over whether to defy the country's creditors and push for better repayment terms or essentially accept their terms, but which the opposition and many of the creditors paint as a choice between staying in the euro or leaving it. (AP Photo/Spyros Tsakiris) 較少











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Associated Press | 拍攝者 Spyros Tsakiris





2015年7月5日週日 台北標準時間下午4時09分





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